Karin Modig, Anders Ahlbom, Mats Talbäck, Anna Meyer, Marcus Ebeling, Sven Drefahl, Anders Brändström, Mojgan Padyab

In this project, we address (1) the extent to which increased longevity is composed of years in good versus poor health, and (2) whether improvements in health among the elderly offset the potential societal burden of their greater number in the population. We construct projections on the future number of new myocardial infarctions, stroke, and hip fractures based on past incidence trends and future population change. Compensation rates are calculated, i.e. how much the age specific incidence needs to come down in order to keep the absolute number of disease events constant in the future, despite an aging and growing population. We calculate how the number of prevalent cases will increase as a result of the projected demographic development and of increased disease specific survival.


  1. Meyer A., Ek S., Drefahl S., Hedström M., Ahlbom A., Modig K. 2021. Trends in incidence, recurrence and survival in hip fractures by education and comorbidity: A nationwide register-based study of the total Swedish population 1998 to 2017. Epidemiology. Volume Publish Ahead of Print.
  2. Modig K., Ahlbom A., Ebeling M. 2021. Excess mortality from covid-19 weekly excess death rates by age and sex for Sweden and its most affected region. European Journal of Public Health 31(1): 17-22.
  3. Ebeling M., Meyer A., Modig K. 2020.The rise in the number of long-term survivors from different diseases can slow the increase in life expectancy of the total population. BMC Public Health 20:1523
  4. Modig K., Rau R., Ahlbom A. 2020. Life expectancy – a useful measure in epidemiology? BMJ Open 2020;10:e035932
  5. Gémes K., Talbäck M., Modig K., Ahlbom A., Berglund A., Feychting M., Matthews A. 2020. Burden and prevalence of prognostic factors for severe covid-19 disease in Sweden. European Journal of Epidemiology 35(5):401-409.
  6. Meyer A., Drefahl S., Lambe M., Ahlbom A., Modig K. 2020. Trends in life expectancy: Did the gap between the healthy and the ill widen or close? BMC Med 18, 41.
  7. Modig K., Erdefelt A., Mellner C., Cederholm T., Talbäck M., Hedstrom M., 2019. Obesity paradox holds true for hip fracture patients– a prospective register-based cohort study. The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery, 5/15/2019.
  8.  Meyer A., Brooke H., Modig K., 2019. The role of children and their socioeconomic resources for the risk of hospitalisation and mortality – A nationwide register-based study of the total Swedish population over the age 70. BMC Geriatrics 19:114.
  9. Modig K., Meyer A., Talbäck M., Ziegler L., Ahlbom A. 2019. Temporal trends in incidence, recurrence and prevalence of stroke in an era of ageing populations: a longitudinal study of the total Swedish population. BMC Geriatrics 19:31.
  10. Modig K., Drefahl S., Ahlbom A., 2018. Närmar vi oss gränsen? Läkartidningen 2018; 115:E7Y3.
  11. Ebeling M., Modig K., Ahlbom A., Rau R., 2018. The effects of increasing longevity and changing incidence on lifetime risk differentials: A decomposition approach. PLOS One. Published April 19, 2018.
  12. Modig K., Andersson T., Rau R., Vaupel J., Ahlbom A., 2017. How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum life span. Journal of Internal Medicine 282(2): 156-163.
  13. Modig K., Berglund A., Talbäck M., Ljung R., Ahlbom A., 2017. Estimating incidence and prevalence from population registers. Example from myocardial infarction. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health 45 (17_suppl): 5-13.

Peer-reviewed conference presentations of work in progress

  • Meyer A., Drefahl S., Ahlbom A., Modig K., 2019. One year per decade? The increase in life expectancy of individuals with disease compared to the general population. Presentation to the 21st Nordic Demographic Symposium, June 13-15, 2019, Reykjavik.
  • Ebeling, M., Meyer, A., Modig, K. 2019. The effect of diseases on national longevity improvements. Presentation to the 21st Nordic Demographic Symposium, June 13-15, 2019, Reykjavik.
  • Modig, K., Andersson T., Ahlbom A., 2019. Future demographic challenges of ageing are countered by declining incidence rates for myocardial infarction and stroke, but not for hip fractures. Presentation to the 21st Nordic Demographic Symposium, June 13-15, 2019, Reykjavik.
  • Drefahl, S., Mussino E., 2019. Parental mortality by age of the child. Presentation to the 21st Nordic Demographic Symposium, June 13-15, 2019, Reykjavik.